Re: There's a Solid Chance Your College List is Terrible

On a crisp autumn morning in New England, Dr. Sarah Chen watched as another student burst into tears in her office.

The young woman, a senior at Phillips Exeter Academy with a 1590 SAT and a packed resume of internships and volunteer work, had just been rejected from her early decision school. "I did everything right," she kept saying. "Everything."

The scene was becoming all too familiar in Chen's oak-paneled office, where college pennants from previous students' successes hung like battle flags. This particular morning's breakdown marked the third that week, and it was only Tuesday. Each student arrived with the same perfect scores, the same carefully curated extracurriculars, the same crushing disappointment. They'd all played what they thought was a perfect game, only to find the rules had changed.

The “Rankings” Industry

It all started in 1983, when U.S. News & World Report published its first college rankings. What began as a simple list grew into what critics now call "the rankings industrial complex"—a multibillion-dollar ecosystem of test prep companies, admissions consultants, and private counselors all feeding off American families' anxiety about securing spots at elite institutions.

The rankings transformed college admissions from a matching process into a competition. Schools began gaming the system, chasing metrics that would boost their standing: lower acceptance rates, higher test scores, larger endowments. This shifted focus away from education quality toward what could be measured and ranked. By the 1990s, college selection had become a high-stakes game where choosing wrong could feel like a life sentence to mediocrity.

Today, in wealthy areas like Westport, Connecticut, and Berkeley, California, the pursuit of prestigious universities has become almost religious. Parents trade acceptance rates like stock tips at dinner parties, dissecting early decision statistics and yield rates with the same intensity their own parents once reserved for dividend yields and market returns. Their children, meanwhile, craft sophisticated spreadsheets predicting their admission chances before they've even taken their first SAT practice test.

Pressure Makes Diamonds?

In Manhattan's Upper East Side, one of the most competitive regions for college applications, families are spending upward of $50,000 on college consulting “courses” starting as early as ninth grade. Private counselors build summer plans, arrange internships at investment and law firms, and schedule SAT tutoring sessions with military precision. "It's like they're training Olympic athletes," says Lisa Tanaka, a first-generation college counselor who works with both wealthy private school students and lower-income, usually first-generation high schoolers. "Except these Olympics happen every day for four years straight."

Tanaka sees both sides of the prestige coin. While her Upper East Side clients agonize over every part of their kids’ applications, her other students often work after-school jobs and navigate the admissions process largely on their own. "The irony," she notes, "is that my public school families often have a healthier perspective on college applications. They're looking for opportunity, not validation."

The mounting pressure has reshaped adolescence itself. High school students now regularly pull all-nighters, not for tests, but to perfect their personal statements or tweak their activity lists. School counselors report rising anxiety levels, with some students starting test prep as early as seventh grade. "We're seeing 13-year-olds having panic attacks about their college chances," Tanaka says. "That should terrify us."

So, What Does the Research Say?

Funnily enough, researchers find that this intense focus on prestige can actually undermine students’ success. Dr. James Morton has spent fifteen years tracking 10,000 graduates from different types of colleges, gathering data on everything from career progression to life satisfaction. His findings? How well a student fits at their college, not the college's ranking, best predicts their success and happiness later in life.

"We're seeing three key factors," Morton explains from his sun-drenched office at a Southern California research institute. "The right academic environment, a community where students can thrive, and financial sustainability. Miss any of these, and even the most prestigious degree loses its value."

Morton's research challenges conventional wisdom about elite education. Students who attended their "safety schools" with full scholarships often outperform peers who stretched financially to attend more prestigious institutions. Those who chose colleges based on specific programs and teaching styles had higher graduation rates than those who picked schools based on brand names.

The Real Cost

The economic cost of prestige manifests quite clearly in the numbers. At a coffee shop off Columbia University's campus, junior Melissa Liao divulges her experience of having $150,000 in debt right after graduation. "Michigan offered me a full ride," she says, "but everyone pushed me toward Columbia, saying it would open more doors. Now I'm wondering if those doors are really worth spending my twenties broke."

Liao’s story reflects a broader trend of students mortgaging their futures for a prestigious name on their diploma. The average student loan debt at top-ranked private universities has skyrocketed, with students graduating with more debt than their projected five-year earnings. Financial advisors have dubbed this phenomenon a "prestige premium"—the additional cost students pay for a brand-name education, often not knowing if it will pay off.

Admissions officers at elite institutions defend their value proposition, pointing to alumni networks and career opportunities. But a growing body of evidence suggests that student debt can negate many of these advantages, forcing graduates to take higher-paying jobs over more fulfilling ones, delaying home purchases, and postponing graduate school plans.

Finding a Better Way

Back in New England, Dr. Chen's student eventually found her way to Wesleyan University. Not her dream school at first, but there she discovered a love for environmental policy and found mentors who shaped her career. "Years later, she told me getting rejected was the best thing that happened to her," Chen says. "The dreams you have at 17 aren't always the ones you need later on in life."

In her office, now decorated with photos of former students thriving at colleges across the spectrum—from community colleges to the Ivy League—Chen keeps a saying pinned above her desk: "Prestige is what impresses your neighbors; fit is what transforms your life."

As another college admissions season approaches, perhaps that's the real lesson we're still learning: true prestige lies in the ability to recognize that the path to success rarely runs in a straight line—and that's exactly how it should be. For the next generation of students, the challenge isn't just getting into college; it's finding the courage to look beyond the arbitrary rankings and choose a path that authentically fits.

However, the classic method of building a college list has long been outdated, with counselors and students stressing for hours on end in a futile attempt to build a list of universities that’s both balanced and ambitious.

That’s where we come in. For the last four years, we’ve worked with tens of thousands of high schoolers to learn what parts of the application process they need the most help with. We took all that data, analyzed it, and created a FREE app that helps you or your kid build a balanced college list in literally thirty minutes MAX.

Here’s the catch! - because we want to keep the app free for every student, we have to cap the first batch of users to 100 kids.

Sign up for the app waitlist now to secure your spot!

Best,

Joshua S.R.
Founder
75 Percent Chance